Abstract

Basal conditions directly control the glacier sliding rate and the dynamic discharge of ice. Recent glacier destabilization events indicate that some marine-terminating glaciers quickly respond to lubricated beds with increased flow speed, but the underlying physics, especially how this vulnerability relates to glacier geometry and flow characteristics, remains unclear. This paper presents a 1D physical framework for glacier dynamic vulnerability assuming sudden basal lubrication as an initial perturbation. In this new model, two quantities determine the scale and the areal extent of the subsequent thinning and acceleration after the bed is lubricated: Péclet number (Pe) and the product of glacier speed and thickness gradient (dubbed J0 in this study). To validate the model, this paper calculates Pe and J0 using multi-sourced data from 1996 to 1998 for outlet glaciers in the Greenland ice sheet and Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, and compares the results with the glacier speed change during 1996/1998–2018. Glaciers with lower Pe and J0 are more likely to accelerate during this 20-year span than those with higher Pe and J0, which matches the model prediction. A combined factor of ice thickness, surface slope, and initial flow speed physically determines how much and how fast glaciers respond to lubricated beds in terms of speed, elevation, and terminus change.

Short Summary

A glacier can speed up when surface water reaches the glacier's bottom via crevasses and reduces sliding friction. This paper builds up a physical model and finds that thick and fast-flowing glaciers are sensitive to this friction disruption. The data from Greenland and Austfonna (Svalbard) glaciers over 20 years support the model prediction. To estimate the projected sea-level rise better, these sensitive glaciers should be frequently monitored for potential future instabilities.

Abstract

Aseismic deformation has been suggested as a mechanism to release the accumulated strain in rifts. However, the fraction and the spatial distribution of the aseismic strain are poorly constrained during amagmatic episodes. Using Sentinel-1 interferograms, we identify the surface deformation associated with the 2014 Mw5.2 Karonga earthquake, Malawi, and perform inversions for fault geometry. We also analyze aftershocks and find a variety of source mechanisms within short timescales. A significant discrepancy in the earthquake depth determined by geodesy (3–6 km) and seismology (11–13 km) exists, although both methods indicate Mw5.2. We propose that the surface deformation is caused by aseismic slip from a shallow depth. This vertical partitioning from seismic to aseismic strain is accommodated by intersecting dilatational faults in the shallow upper crust and sedimentary basin, highlighting the importance of considering aseismic deformation in active tectonics and time-averaged strain patterns, even in rifts with little volcanism.

Plain Language Summary

During the early stages of continental rifting, some accumulated tectonic energy is released with little or no earthquake activity (i.e., aseismic strain). This is most often observed in places where magma intrusion occurs. However, in rift basins lacking evidence of magma intrusion, how much and where the aseismic strain is released remains largely unknown. We investigate a magnitude 5.2 earthquake that occurred in 2014 near Karonga, Malawi, using both local seismic data and satellite ground deformation data. Our analyses show that although the main earthquake and other aftershocks ruptured at ∼12 km deep, the surface deformation is caused by an aseismic source from a shallower region (3–6 km deep). The aftershocks occur seconds to minutes apart and have different rupture sources, suggesting a highly damaged zone. The depth discrepancy between earthquake locations and the aseismic energy source might be caused by a weak, damaged layer where many faults intersect. Since intersecting faults are common in rift systems, our study suggests that this depth discrepancy might be common as well, indicating a large portion of energy released as aseismic strain in a continental rifting system.

Abstract

Surge-type glaciers typically undergo cyclical flow instability due to mass accumulation; however, some recent glacier surges have caused irreversible ice loss in a short period. At Vavilov Ice Cap, Russia, surge-like behavior initiated in 2013 and by spring 2019 the ice cap had lost 9.5 Gt of ice (11% mass of the entire basin). Using time series of surface elevation and glacier velocity derived from satellite optical and synthetic-aperture radar imagery, we identify a shift of flow pattern starting in 2017 when shear margins formed within the grounded marine piedmont fan. Multiple summer speedups correlate with warmer summers during 2015–2019 and suggest that surface melt may access the subglacial environment. Force balance analysis and examination of the Péclet number show that glacier thinning propagated upstream in 2016–2017, and diffusion became a significant dynamic response to thinning perturbations. Our results suggest that the glacier has entered a new ice stream-like regime.

Plain Language Summary

A glacier surge is a sudden speedup of glacier flow coinciding with a large advance of the ice front. Some glaciers surge periodically every 10–100 years, and so surge mechanism is thought to be independent of climate change. However, some recent surges have evacuated so much ice that another surge is unlikely to occur in the same place again. A glacier surge at the Vavilov Ice Cap, Russia, is one of these cases. Since 2013, the glacier has drained more than 11% of the ice basin (9.5 Gt) into the ocean. After the initial surge in 2013, the glacier still retains fast flow at around 1.8 km/year, an unusually high and long-lasting speed for a glacier surge. To understand the future of the surge, we use satellite images to calculate surface elevations and ice speeds, and analyze their change over time for the glacier. The results reveal that the glacier now physically behaves more like an “ice stream,” a stream of fast-flowing ice within an ice sheet, which can probably flow at high speed for a long time and drain ice efficiently. This is the first documented case of an ice stream-like feature ever being formed.

Abstract

In December, 2009, a rare sequence of earthquakes initiated within the weakly extended Western Rift of the East African Rift system in the Karonga province of northern Malawi, providing a unique opportunity to characterize active deformation associated with intrabasinal faults in an early-stage rift. We combine teleseismic and regional seismic recordings of the largest events, InSAR imagery of the primary sequence, and recordings of aftershocks from a temporary (4-month) local network of six seismometers to delineate the extent and geometry of faulting. The locations of ∼1900 aftershocks recorded between January and May 2010 are largely consistent with a west-dipping normal fault directly beneath Karonga as constrained by InSAR and CMT fault solutions. However, a substantial number of epicentres cluster in an east-dipping geometry in the central part of the study area, and additional west-dipping clusters can be discerned near the shore of Lake Malawi, particularly in the southern part of the study area. Given the extensive network of hanging wall faults mapped in the Karonga region on the surface and in seismic reflection images, the distribution of events is strongly suggestive of multiple faults interacting to produce the observed deformation, and the InSAR data permit this but do not require it. We propose that fault interaction contributed to the seismic moment release as a series of Mw 5-to-6 events instead of a normal main shock–aftershock sequence. We find the depth of fault slip during the main shocks constrained by InSAR peaks at less than 6 km, while the majority of recorded aftershocks are deeper than 6 km. This depth discrepancy appears to be robust and may be explained by fault interaction. Structural complexities associated with fault interaction may have limited the extent of coseismic slip during the main shocks, which increased stress deeper than the coseismic slip zone on the primary fault and synthetic faults to the east, causing the energetic aftershock series. There is no evidence of deformation at the Rungwe volcanic province ∼50 km north of the earthquake sequence between 2007 and 2010, consistent with previous interpretations of no significant magmatic contribution during the sequence.

Abstract

Ice caps that are mostly frozen at the bedrock-ice interface are thought to be stable and respond slowly to changes in climate. We use remote sensing to measure velocity and thickness changes that occur when the margin of the largely cold-based Vavilov Ice Cap in the Russian High Arctic advances over weak marine sediments. We show that cold-based to polythermal glacier systems with no previous history of surging may evolve with unexpected and unprecedented speed when their basal boundary conditions change, resulting in very large dynamic ice mass losses (an increase in annual mass loss by a factor of 100) over a few years. We question the future long-term stability of cold and polythermal polar ice caps, many of which terminate in marine waters as the climate becomes warmer and wetter in the polar regions.

Abstract

The glaciers of the Franz Josef Land (FJL) archipelago in the Russian Arctic are subjected to rapidly-warming temperatures but are small contributors to sea level. We analyze ice surface elevation data derived from satellite stereo imagery (WorldView and SPOT), radar altimetry (CryoSat-2), and a digitized 1953 cartographic map to calculate elevation change rates (dh/dt). Mass loss from FJL doubled between 2011 and 2015 compared to 1953–2011/2015, increasing from a rate of −2.18 ± 0.72 Gt/yr to −4.43 ± 0.78 Gt/yr. This 2011−2015 rate indicates an acceleration in ice loss from that observed in 2003–2009 by multiple studies using ICESat and GRACE. Glacier thinning rates are spatially highly variable. We observe glacier thinning rates of up to 10 m per year, and in general we see a trend of increased thinning from the NE towards the SW. Glacier retreat is widespread and has led to the creation of at least one new island. Historically, ice wastage from FJL is thought to have been relatively small, but accelerating ice loss may be the new normal for this archipelago in a warming Arctic.